The Greens - Potentially Political Losers In The Current Climate?
October 22nd, 2008
It was always likely the opinion poll gap between National and Labour would start closing as the election approached. However, there was also evidence until recently of people who might usually support Labour toying with voting for a minor party such as the Greens, in the expectation of a Labour defeat. The global financial crisis has changed the game. Labour was slow to pick up the ball, but is now running with it, positioning Helen Clark as the experienced, authoritative politician to lead in tough times and launching its campaign by deftly piggybacking the Aust bank deposits guarantee scheme. Hard times almost certainly imply a political “flight to certainty,” in the same way as investors head for cash when the going gets tough. None but the two main parties can be regarded as credible leaders of a new Govt, and there is likely to be very little public patience for the disunity usually on show during and straight after MMP elections.
Whether the voting public will prove more likely to choose John Key over Helen Clark as a more competent economic manager remains to be seen, but this is hardly the climate for protest voting and, as the most likely repository for disaffected Labour votes, the Greens can be expected to suffer this impact more than other third parties.
Meanwhile, John Key’s tax package has obviously produced mixed results in an electorate rapidly waking up to a difficult few years ahead, and the pressure on Key to project authority in crisis - so far not his strong suit - faces a serious test between now and November 8.
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