While the fate of the Govt’s emissions trading scheme legislation was hanging in the balance at the weekend, Parliamentary opinion was swinging towards the Bill getting the numbers for its passage before the House rises. The pressure was on Green MPs to throw their support behind the Bill. They were inundated with messages from the public after Greens co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons called last week for public feedback, saying the party was weighing whether “something is better than nothing” including the risk National in Govt could introduce a less acceptable scheme. Greenpeace urged the Greens to support the Bill despite its shortcomings. Helen Clark says she hopes Greenpeace’s view will be a “good sign to the Greens.”

Under the proposed law sectors of the economy will progressively be brought into the regime, which sets limits on allowable greenhouse gas emissions. Those exceeding their limit will have to buy credits from those who reduce emissions. Fitzsimons says the decision will have the biggest economic implications of any the Greens have made.

The Greens failed to move the Govt on setting earlier targets for transport and agriculture to be introduced into the ETS, and the Govt has also not yet accepted a standard to ensure pine planting does not destroy bio-diversity. Fitzsimons says “on the other hand it appears there will be substantial financial assistance to help people make their houses warm and dry.”

The Greens made progress on ways to encourage technological innovation and there will be better rules on how polluters are allocated emissions units. NZ First has extracted some commitments from the Govt to compensate low-income groups for increases in power prices the ETS will bring.

The Greens (who have been sliding in public polls) risk forfeiting some of their basic support if they fail to back the ETS legislation. Climate change is a core element in Green politics and for Green MPs to go into the “noes” lobby alongside National and vote against the Govt’s legislation will alienate many would-be Green voters. Even to abstain will be seen as a betrayal of Green principles. In some quarters the Green ploy of inviting public input has been seen as an effort to lift the party’s profile among voters. It has also been criticised as abdicating their responsibility as MPs to make their own decision. The Parliamentary timetable is now so tight the Greens could cause further problems if they resist the House going into urgency to pass the ETS Bill.

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