Energy analyst Bryan Leyland is a persistent thorn in the side of the Govt over its electricity generation and climate change policies. Leyland, who unlike most commentators is not willing to toe the politically-correct line, has called for the Emissions Trading Scheme to be scrapped and two Royal Commissions set up: one to examine the science around man-made climate change and the other to investigate nuclear and coal options for NZ.

Leyland is rather like a mischievous schoolboy, who takes delight in stirring up the Greens and making them squirm. His solution to NZ’s energy needs is to build another combined-cycle gas-fired power station at Otahuhu or Rodney, to supply Auckland. In addition, he advocates a large coal-fired power station in Southland, using the hundreds of years of coal reserves known to exist there. Power from this coal-fired Southland plant, he argues, could be transmitted to Auckland over a new 2000MW DC link, which would eliminate the need for a new 400kV line into Auckland. He adds, a major gas discovery in the Great South Basin would be a bonus. Leyland is an outspoken critic of wind farms because they will not contribute to NZ’s need for more base-load generation. He notes the Emissions Trading Scheme assumes wind power costs about 7c/kWh but recent studies by the Electricity Commission show it is more like 10c to 12c.

If NZ relies on wind power, Leyland warns, there will be shortages, blackouts and high prices whenever the wind doesn’t blow, and the Govt will be forced to build more inefficient backup stations like Whirinaki. Leyland calculates if NZ relies on heavily on wind energy, it will require about 18,000MW of installed capacity to meet anticipated peak demand of 10,500MW by 2030. In contrast, if the ETS was scrapped and NZ used gas and coal-fired technology (and possibly nuclear) it would require only 13,500MW of installed capacity to meet the same peak demand.

This equates to a saving of 4500MW of installed capacity, which in dollar terms amounts to about $10bn. If that extra $10bn is spread across all NZ households, it will see electricity bills jump from the current $1600 annual average to about $2700, a 70% increase. While the Govt may dismiss Leyland as a “climate change denier,” we should be thankful for energy analysts like him who are prepared to challenge the prevailing wisdom. In the long run, he might just turn out to be right.

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