Dr Roger Jones, an expert on climate change risk from Melbourne warns neither NZ nor Australia is spending enough to get native eco-systems in a healthy state in preparation for global warming. Dr Jones told the climate change conference in Wellington last week NZ should work harder at wiping out invasive plants and animals to get native species as healthy as possible to adapt to future climate change. Natural eco-systems are so complex scientists did not know how they would react. “We don’t know what’s going to happen so the best protection is to keep it in a healthy state.”

Scientists at the conference looked at how NZers could prepare for two possible futures at the lower and upper ends of IPCC predictions for global warming. Climate change Minister Nick Smith said NZ could expect temperature rises of about 1 degree Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius by 2090, matched by sea level rises of about 20cm mid-century and 50cm by the end of the century.
Also projected are higher rainfall in the West and more droughts in the east. Smith says the Ministry for the Environment is leading cross-Govt work on climate change. It is preparing a discussion document scoping options for a proposed national environmental standard on sea level rise. It is also working on a proposed national policy statement on flood risk management.

Landcare ecologist Matt McGlone says NZ’s remaining patches of bio-diversity are already stressed by pests and weeds. Intense development of parts of the coasts and major estuaries had backed coastal eco-systems into a corner. Estuaries and sand dunes would normally move inland or outwards in response to changing sea levels. But in many places they will now strike roads or sewage ponds directly inland.

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