NZ Power Sector: Too Little New Generation Planned, EC Warns
January 20th, 2010
In its draft system security analysis, which is out for comment until Jan 29, the Electricity Commission is warning electricity shortages may re-emerge as early as 2013. “There are … serious concerns about peak capacity during winter 2012, with capacity margins projected to be below the security threshold” on a variety of scenarios analysed from normal to high-risk. In the scantly reported document, released after delays just before Christmas, the EC says “the outlook for 2012 should be re-evaluated in 2010.”
A revised table of potential new power stations is presented in the EC report, showing a drop of more than two-thirds in anticipated new capacity over the next three years. In its 2008 assessment, the EC was projecting total new build from 2010 to 2012 amounting to 1536MW of installed capacity, not counting the 200MW it assumed would be in place at Stratford by the end of 2009, but is in fact still under construction. Instead, the new assessment projects a mere 549MW of new build plans from 2010 to 2012, including the 200MW at Stratford.
Among the biggest deferrals are Contact’s new Te Mihi replacement plant for the Wairakei geothermal power station and its 540MW Hauauru Ma Raki wind development near Raglan. Genesis’s new policy of only running Huntly if it makes commercial sense to do so is also part of the new, riskier outlook. Huntly cannot be started up quickly if supply suddenly drops and it will no longer run just so it can be used like a peaker at the drop of a hat. The EC says “there is the potential for unit commitment problems to have a serious adverse effect on security of supply at peak times.”
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