Release of new figures showing NZ can currently claim over-performance on its carbon reduction efforts caused some dismay and cynicism among commentators who have seen these numbers swing from the red to the black and back again over recent years. However, Environment Minister Nick Smith’s warning is “get used to it,” especially as NZ’s greatest emissions are from agriculture, and these remain very difficult to measure accurately.

Smith says “having a mid-range figure in surplus is good news.” He has released new analysis showing NZ is now expected to exceed its 2012 Kyoto targets by 9.6m tonnes, yielding an estimated value of $241m. This compares with an estimated deficit of 21.7m tonnes, valued at $546m last year.

But Smith says “the numbers on this are very uncertain and I won’t be promising hundreds of millions of dollars from Kyoto for NZ. It will be uncertain all way through to 2015″ - the point at which final calculations will be undertaken to determine countries’ liabilities in the first Kyoto commitment period. On the upside, the latest figures assume that the Huntly power station continues to run on coal, whereas it has more recently reverted to gas, leading to a substantial fall in carbon emissions by the stationary energy sector, which includes electricity generation.

The new numbers include results for the first time from the Govt’s Land Use and Carbon Analysis System, a major Environment Ministry project which will be particularly important for calculating the impact of post-1989 forest removals. This was a key factor in pushing NZ’s emissions forecast into the black, accounting for a 9.6m tonne reduction in forecast carbon emissions. It found the age of felled forests was lower than previously estimated, meaning smaller amounts of sequestered carbon were “released” when they were cut down.

The latest figures also include a NZ-specific emission factor for nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural soils and includes assumptions about the uptake of nitrification inhibitors which reduce nitrous oxide emissions from livestock dung and urine. The largest single factor reducing expected emissions over the first Kyoto commitment period was the impact of the 2008 drought on stock numbers and feed intake. Combined with nitrification inhibitors, these variables reduced NZ’s emissions profile by 14.4m tonnes.

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