National is accusing the Govt of “political manipulation” of figures relating to NZ’s Kyoto liability. The Govt’s latest projection is for a deficit of 21.7m tonnes of CO2 equivalent during the first Kyoto commitment period, which equates to $481m at current carbon prices. This is a sharp revision downwards from the previous Treasury estimate of 45.5m tonnes, which would create a liability of just over $1bn.

National’s Nick Smith suggests the figures are being politically manipulated to suit the agenda of the Govt in explaining its “backward flip” on the Emissions Trading Scheme. During Parliamentary questions last Thursday, Smith asked: “How does the Minister explain that on May 4, in the pre-Budget fiscal update, the Govt advised … the estimated Kyoto deficit was $1009m but just three days later the PM announced, at the same time as the backward flip on the timing of the Emissions Trading Scheme, that in fact the figure was only $482m; and does he seriously suggest the key facts that led to the revision downwards were not known three days earlier?”

Climate Change Minister David Parker replied the net position report is produced annually. But every month Treasury updates the figure, to take account of movements such as the exchange rate or the international price of carbon. He explains, “That is what happened in respect of the figure that was in Treasury’s estimates previously.”

Parker adds NZ’s preparation of Kyoto estimates is “probably the most transparent in the world.” But Smith says if the figures are to have credibility, they should be managed independently and released in the same way as the household labour force survey, inflation, and other critical economic data. He notes when the Govt ratified the Kyoto Protocol, it projected NZ would make a profit of $1100m. By the 2005 election, this figure had turned around to a $300m deficit and the Govt at the time claimed this was a worst case scenario.

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