A North Island Maori leader is warning the Emissions Trading Scheme will incur the wrath of Maori forest owners, as well as private owners of forests planted before 1990, due to hefty deforestation liabilities. Harvey Bell, from the Morikaunui Incorporation, notes 90% of Maori-owned forested land (600,000ha) is pre-1990 forests. Bell estimates the post-harvest deforestation liability under the ETS would be a massive $15.1bn, or 10 times the total value of Treaty Settlements. Bell says while the recent “Treelords” deal with central North Island Maori has been claimed to be worth $400-$500m, with the return of 176,000ha of forest, those figures don’t take into account the impact of the ETS. He argues if 50% of the settlement land is suitable for other more profitable uses than forestry, the deforestation liability as at July 1, 2009 will be about $1.69bn (assuming a carbon price of $40/tonne). This is more than three times the claimed value of the settlement. Thus the “real situation” is a negative $1.2bn.

But the Kyoto Forestry Association is backing the ETS legislation, saying it is essential for the thousands of NZers who invested their savings to plant trees in the 1990s, who will secure an estimated $1.6bn of carbon credits. KFA spokesman Roger Dickie getting tree planting underway again is the most important contribution NZ can make to reducing carbon emissions and to reduce NZ’s Kyoto deficit. But he says foresters and investors won’t start planting trees until the ETS policy is decided. Dickie adds new forest plantings in 2008 will be the lowest on record for NZ, and tree nurseries have received very few orders for seedlings. During 2006 and 2007, the KFA ran a high-profile campaign which eventually succeeded in getting post-1990 carbon credits returned to forest owners.

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