The International Energy Agency has calculated the cost of halving global greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 at $US45trn. The cost represents the investment needed in alternative energy technologies to achieve what the IEA describes as a virtual decarbonisation of the power sector. $US45trn is equivalent to 1.1% of global GDP during the period.

The IEA bases its calculation on 35 coal and 20 gas-fired power plants being fitted with CO2 capture and storage technology each year between 2010 and 2050 at a cost of $US1.5bn each. Furthermore, an additional 32 new nuclear plants each year would be required, and wind capacity would have to increase by about 17,500 turbines annually. This also implies numerous issues would need to be overcome, such as the NIMBY-attitude (not in my backyard), and a need to boost the numbers of engineering and technical graduates. IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka says it would essentially require a global energy revolution, which would completely transform the way we produce and use energy.

New insights from the IEA study include recognition of the important role for CO2 capture in industry, the need for further development of solar electricity, and the importance of second generation bio-diesel. The IEA envisages nearly 50% of electricity generated worldwide in 2050 will be from renewable sources, compared with 18% now. It also foresees biomass providing almost 25% of the world’s primary energy by 2050. The IEA sees up to one-third of carbon emission reductions coming from energy-efficiency improvements. For example, it believes the fuel economy of petrol and diesel cars could be doubled using existing technologies and at reasonable cost. Through further efficiencies plus introduction of electric vehicles, oil use and CO2 emissions from light vehicles could be cut by 75% by 2050. But aviation is a bigger challenge, with demand for travel is expected to treble by 2050.

While the $US45trn price tag might seem daunting, the IEA notes this will be offset by the cost of the fossil-fuel use avoided, which could be almost as large. It also acknowledges the uncertain price of oil makes it difficult to estimate costs so far into the future.

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